the question everyone's secretly googling at 1am
In 71% of simulated markets, that gets you all the way there.
600 randomized market paths · inflation-adjusted spending · does the money actually survive retirement?
We roll 600 different futures, each year's return drawn at random around your expected return. The success rate is simply how many of those futures leave you with money at the end.
Watch the band fan out the moment drawdown starts. A bad stretch in your first retirement years forces you to sell shares cheap — the same crash decades later barely registers.
With inflation on, your expenses grow every year, so the income you need quietly climbs. It's the difference between a plan that looks safe and one that actually is.
It runs 600 randomized market simulations using your savings rate, expected return, volatility, and annual expenses, then reports the share of those futures in which your money lasts your full plan. That percentage is your success rate.
Most planners treat 85% or higher as resilient, 60–85% as borderline, and below 60% as fragile. The success-rate card is color-coded on that same scale so you can see where you stand at a glance.
FIRE stands for Financial Independence, Retire Early. Your timeline depends mostly on your savings rate: the more of your income you invest, the sooner investment income can cover your expenses. Drag the savings slider to see your own freedom year.
Yes — Am I Free Yet? is completely free, with no sign-up and no account required.